{"generated_at":"2026-09-30T07:50:17+00:00","api_version":1,"license":"CC BY 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","categories":{"military":"Military posture","diplomatic":"Diplomatic / political","economic_info":"Economic / informational","rule_of_law":"Rule of law & institutions"},"config":{"weights":{"military":0.3,"diplomatic":0.25,"economic_info":0.15,"rule_of_law":0.3},"baseline":{"window_days":30,"min_days":7,"std_floor":0.75,"deviation_gain":8.0,"z_clamp_low":-2.0,"z_clamp_high":3.0},"signals":{"spike_z":1.5,"spike_delta":2.0,"compound_window_days":3,"compound_min_categories":3,"converging_min_categories":2},"bands":{"elevated":25,"tense":50,"crisis":75},"methodology_version":"1.0"},"entries":[{"date":"2026-09-30","risk":35.5,"absolute":35.5,"z":null,"band":"elevated","signal":"none","spiking":[],"window":[],"change_1d":null,"slope_7d":null,"baseline_ready":false,"upstream_composite":32.0,"summary":"Kosovo Police arrested nine people in Zubin Potok on suspicion of war crimes on 27 Sep and a Pristina court ordered up to 30 days' detention on 29 Sep; Belgrade officials described the arrests as pressure on Serbs. No armed incidents or posture changes were reported. Election periods are under way or imminent in Bosnia and Herzegovina (4 Oct), Kosovo (presidential-election deadline 6 Oct) and Serbia (25 Oct).","categories":{"military":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No barricades, armed incidents or Serbian Armed Forces alert reported in the sources reviewed; the main security-related event was a Kosovo Police operation (arrests on 27 Sep, reported again today in the court coverage).","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false,"components":{"kfor":{"score":3.0,"justification":"No KFOR statement or posture change was found; KFOR's site could not be accessed today, so this reflects absence of reporting in the other sources reviewed."},"police":{"score":4.0,"justification":"Kosovo Police and the Special Prosecution's 'File 23' operation with raids across Zubin Potok on 27 Sep; the seized items listed by Kosovarja include firearms, ammunition and about \u20ac23,000 in cash."}}},"diplomatic":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"Serbian President Vu\u010di\u0107 on 27 Sep called the arrests 'the most insidious method of ethnic cleansing of Serbs' (Kosovo Online); Kosovo's Assembly on 28 Sep unanimously declared the Specialist Chambers verdict on four former KLA leaders 'unacceptable' (EWB); no summons, recall or recognition move was found.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"economic_info":{"score":3.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"No energy, customs, cyber or coordinated-campaign events found; Kosovo Online (29 Sep) cites the Kosovo Business Alliance saying only 7% of the EUR 882 million EU Growth Plan funds has been received.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false},"rule_of_law":{"score":4.0,"delta_reported":0.0,"note":"The Basic Court in Pristina ordered up to 30 days' detention for nine suspects on 29 Sep; defence lawyers say the prosecution case is unsupported and they will appeal (Kosovo Online), while prosecutors cite a risk of flight to Serbia. In Bosnia, Milorad Dodik remains SNSD leader under a court-imposed office ban ahead of the 4 Oct general election (EWB, 4 Sep); no OHR ruling or defiance was found today.","z":null,"mean":null,"std":null,"delta":0.0,"spike":false}},"sources":[{"url":"https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/chronicle/basic-court-pristina-orders-30-days-detention-nine-serbs-zubin-potok-29-9-2026","title":"Kosovo Online: Basic Court in Pristina orders up to 30 days' detention for nine Serbs from Zubin Potok","domain":"kosovo-online.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/politics/vucic-arrests-zubin-potok-most-insidious-method-ethnic-cleansing-serbs-27-9-2026","title":"Kosovo Online: Vucic on arrests in Zubin Potok: The most insidious method of ethnic cleansing of Serbs","domain":"kosovo-online.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.kosovarja-ks.com/en/2026/9/file-23-zubin-potok-9-arrested-war-crimes-detained-48-hours-images/","title":"Kosovarja: File 23 in Zubin Potok - 9 arrested war crimes detained for 48 hours","domain":"kosovarja-ks.com","category":null},{"url":"https://www.trtworld.com/article/c8185ebb7295","title":"TRT World: Kosovo arrests nine Serbs on suspicion of war crimes","domain":"trtworld.com","category":null},{"url":"https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2026/09/28/parliament-of-kosovo-declares-verdict-against-kla-leaders-unacceptable/","title":"European Western Balkans: Parliament of Kosovo declares verdict against KLA leaders 'unacceptable'","domain":"europeanwesternbalkans.com","category":null},{"url":"https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2026/09/27/vucic-resigns-as-president-to-run-for-prime-minister/","title":"European Western Balkans: Vu\u010di\u0107 resigns as President to run for Prime Minister","domain":"europeanwesternbalkans.com","category":null},{"url":"http://balkanindex.org/api/data","title":"Calibration data unavailable today","domain":"balkanindex.org","category":null}],"notes":"- Calibration data unavailable today: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://balkanindex.org/api/data&source=gmail&ust=1790839997837000&sa=E was reachable but returned an empty entries array, so scores are from the rubric and anchors alone and deltas are shown as 0 for lack of a prior reading.\n- The arrests were reported by Kosovo Police and the Special Prosecution (via Kosovarja/TRT World) and contested by Serbian officials (Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Vu\u010di\u0107) via Kosovo Online, an outlet aligned with Belgrade; the two sides' accounts of motive differ and the allegations against the suspects have not been tested in court.\n- Political calendar: Vu\u010di\u0107 resigned as President on 27 Sep to run as SNS's Prime Minister candidate (Serbian elections 25 Oct; EWB reports Ana Brnabi\u0107 as Acting President); Kosovo faces a 6 Oct deadline for electing a president, with snap elections described as the most likely outcome (Kosovo Online analysis, 29 Sep); Bosnia and Herzegovina votes 4 Oct.\n- Kosovo Online (29 Sep) reports EU High Representative Kallas said normalisation and EU-path progress must go hand in hand, and EU Special Representative Sorensen said the dialogue 'has no deadline'; this is relayed via a commentary piece, not a primary EU source.\n- Coverage gaps: KFOR, Balkan Insight, RFE/RL and several Serbian, Bosnian and Republika Srpska outlets could not be opened or returned no dated items today, so Republika Srpska and KFOR readings are low-confidence. The OHR site's latest items (Acting High Representative Crishock, 26 Sep) were routine.\n- What to watch: appeals against the detention order, any further arrests in Zubin Potok, the 4 Oct Bosnian election result and OHR/Court reactions, and the 6 Oct Kosovo presidential deadline.","retrospective":false,"revised":true,"revision_count":1,"revisions":[{"reason":"corrected_email","at":"2026-09-30 07:50:15","changed":{"diplomatic":{"old":5.0,"new":4.0},"economic_info":{"old":4.0,"new":3.0},"military":{"old":4.0,"new":3.0}}}]}],"limited":{"days":30,"log":7,"total_days":1,"first_date":"2026-09-30"}}